In order to beat my opponent in November, I will need to gain 100,000 votes this election cycle. Obviously, this will be an extraordinary task, but it is very possible. The following breaks down the numbers and explains how I will win this coming fall.
Republicans max out at 150,000 voters when there’s a Democratic opponent.
Going back to 1992, Republicans have shown there is a ceiling in the number of voters who will turn out for their candidates which translates to about 20% of the population.
Republicans are nervous about getting rid of straight-ticket voting.
While the measure was originally meant to suppress communities of color, the Republicans are now concerned that many older constituents will vote for president without continuing down the ballot lowers their turnout in red districts.
● Moderate Democrats: Mike Collier beat out Beto, Lupe, and Miguel in almost every county in West Texas, sometimes by several thousand votes. Collier-Watson voters will account for ~15,000 new votes.
● Central, North, and East Lubbock: We need to remember that Lubbock was gerrymandered to keep Central Lubbock from voting with East and North Lubbock. If we can maintain 80% turnout in North Lubbock, while raising East and Central Lubbock precincts to a similar percentage, we will gain ~50,000 votes. This is our biggest – and easiest – area for growth.
● Historic 3% growth: For the past decade, West Texas has seen a natural 3% increase in Democratic turnout each election cycle. 2020 will be no different adding another ~16,000 votes.
● Final 3%: This will be the hardest area of growth. The final ~16,000 voters will be spread across our 27 counties with little in common demographically or geographically. To engage these voters, we will need a strong media strategy as well as grassroots efforts on the ground.
We’ve already started.
Tom has already started building his team of volunteers and supporters. On February 6th, 15 interns were trained to become voter registration deputies in Lubbock county and will focus solely on this task from now until May. Tom has also hired a marketing team and is proving he’s willing to do the hard work this type of campaign needs.
Always remember that the Republican Party wins elections with only 20% support from the voting public. With 21%, we can take back our district.